Chinese Seamless Carbon Steel Pipe Exports Surge 18% in Q3, Defying Global Trade Headwinds
Shanghai, September 24, 2025 — China's seamless carbon-steel pipe producers shipped 1.14 million metric tons abroad in the third quarter, an 18% year-on-year jump that outpaced analysts' forecasts and widened the country's global market share to 34%, customs data released Monday show.
The robust export performance comes despite a fresh round of anti-dumping duties imposed by the European Union in July and an ongoing currency squeeze in key emerging markets. Industry executives attribute the resilience to aggressive cost controls, faster delivery times and a pivot toward higher-grade, low-carbon products that command premium pricing.
"Chinese mills have cracked the code on producing API 5CT P110 casing with 30% lower CO₂ emissions per ton," said Liang Wen, senior analyst at Mysteel Global. "Buyers in the Middle East and North America are willing to pay an extra USD 80-90 per ton for certified green pipes."
Benchmark export prices for 89-219 mm OD seamless line pipe averaged USD 835 per ton FOB Tianjin in September, up USD 27 from June and the highest level since April 2023, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Supply-side drivers
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Raw-material relief: Iron-ore prices delivered to China have fallen 22% since mid-July, cutting billet costs by roughly USD 55 per ton.
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Capacity upgrades: State-owned giant Baowu completed a USD 480 million reheating-furnace retrofit at its Changzhou plant, boosting output of sour-service OCTG by 350,000 tpy while trimming energy use 12%.
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Logistical edge: Average door-to-port lead time from Jiangsu mills to Shanghai has shrunk to 42 hours, down from 58 hours last year, after the launch of a dedicated 50,000-dwt pipe berth at Yangshan Port.
Demand hotspots
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Saudi Aramco's USD 12 billion Jafurah unconventional-gas development lifted Chinese pipe bookings 26% on-quarter.
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U.S. shale exporters booked 165,000 tons of Chinese seamless casing in August alone, the highest monthly volume since the 2018 trade-war tariffs, as domestic U.S. OCTG lead times stretched beyond 20 weeks.
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Offshore wind-to-hydrogen projects in the North Sea are specifying X65Q submerged-arc welded (SAW) line pipe; Chinese producers captured 42% of the 95,000-ton tender floated by Equinor in July.
Trade tensions simmer The European Commission is reviewing a request from EUROFER to expand anti-subsidy measures to include green-labelled pipes, arguing that state-backed energy discounts still distort competition. A preliminary decision is expected by mid-November.
Meanwhile, India's Ministry of Steel is considering a 15% safeguard duty on carbon-steel pipe imports after domestic output fell 7% in August. Indian buyers imported a record 312,000 tons from China in Q3, up 41% versus 2024.
Market outlook "With global energy capex rising 9% in 2026 and Chinese mills holding a USD 60-70 per ton cost advantage, we see export volumes staying above 1 million tons per quarter through H1-2026," said Grace Liu, head of tubular goods research at Wood Mackenzie. "The key risk is an EU anti-circumvention probe that could add 25% duties retroactively to January 2026."
Spot offers for December shipment have already climbed to USD 860 per ton, and traders report limited availability of PSL-2 grade pipe until February. If iron-ore holds below USD 90/dmt and coking coal stays under USD 210/t, Chinese exporters could retain EBITDA margins of 14-16% even under a 20% tariff scenario, Liu added.
Shares of listed pipe makers rallied on the data: Jiangsu Changbao Advanced Tube Co. closed 6.7% higher in Shenzhen, while Hengyang Valin Steel Tube gained 5.4% in Shanghai.
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